Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cda |
Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change | |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur1,2; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia1; Pohl, Benjamin3; Robson, Jon2; Dong, Buwen2 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; England |
英文摘要 | The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESMLarge Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon. |
英文关键词 | West Africa climate change internal variability uncertainties |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413848800001 |
WOS关键词 | WEST-AFRICAN MONSOON ; OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; CMIP5 SIMULATIONS ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; RAINFALL ; CLIMATE ; HIATUS ; SURFACE ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35433 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CERFACS, CNRS, CECI UMR 5318, Toulouse, France; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 3.Univ Bourgogne Franche Comte, CNRS, Ctr Rech Climatol, UMR Biogeosci 6282, Dijon, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Monerie, Paul-Arthur,Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia,Pohl, Benjamin,et al. Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(11). |
APA | Monerie, Paul-Arthur,Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia,Pohl, Benjamin,Robson, Jon,&Dong, Buwen.(2017).Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11). |
MLA | Monerie, Paul-Arthur,et al."Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论