Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab1b1 |
The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble | |
Nikulin, Grigory1; Lennard, Chris2; Dosio, Alessandro3; Kjellstrom, Erik1; Chen, Youmin4,5,14; Haensler, Andreas6; Kupiainen, Marco1; Laprise, Rene7; Mariotti, Laura8,15; Maule, Cathrine Fox9,16; van Meijgaard, Erik10; Panitz, Hans-Juergen11; Scinocca, John F.12; Somot, Samuel13 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Sweden; South Africa; Italy; Norway; Germany; Canada; Denmark; Netherlands; France; England |
英文摘要 | There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models' agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 degrees C GWL and strengthening at 2 degrees C. A consistent difference between 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 degrees C furtherwarming (from1.5 degrees C-2 degrees C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes. |
英文关键词 | CORDEX Africa 1.5 degrees climate extremes |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000433551600002 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DEGREES-C ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; CMIP5 ; SIMULATIONS ; IMPACTS ; INDEXES ; EUROPE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35388 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.SMHI, Rossby Ctr, Norrkoping, Sweden; 2.Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, Cape Town, South Africa; 3.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy; 4.Uni Res, Bergen, Norway; 5.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway; 6.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS, Hamburg, Germany; 7.Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Sci Terre & Atmosphere, Ctr ESCER Etud & Simulat Climat Echelle Reg, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 8.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste, Italy; 9.DMI, Danish Climate Ctr, Copenhagen, Denmark; 10.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 11.KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Tropospher Res IMK TR, Karlsruhe, Germany; 12.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada; 13.Meteo France, CNRS, UMR 3589, CNRM, Toulouse, France; 14.Univ Oxford, Ocean & Planetary Phys Clarendon Lab, Oxford, England; 15.Ist Nazl Oceanog & Geofis Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy; 16.Stat Denmark, Res Serv, Copenhagen, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nikulin, Grigory,Lennard, Chris,Dosio, Alessandro,et al. The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Nikulin, Grigory.,Lennard, Chris.,Dosio, Alessandro.,Kjellstrom, Erik.,Chen, Youmin.,...&Somot, Samuel.(2018).The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Nikulin, Grigory,et al."The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
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