Picking up on the numerous ongoing negotiations on Green Deal files in the legislative procedure, as well as the impact of the war in Ukraine and the energy price hike, the Barometer paints a picture of the Green Deal as it currently stands.

As the European Commission reaches the halfway point of its mandate, sustainability experts across the continent are losing confidence in the ability of the EU institutions to implement the European Green Deal by 2024, shows the second edition of IEEP’s European Green Deal Barometer. In addition, 47% of respondents think it is unlikely that the EU will reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fuelled this scepticism and the invasion is now seen as a major obstacle to Green Deal implementation over the next year.

Of the 314 experts from academia, think tanks, NGOs and the private sector who responded to IEEP’s annual survey, 45% think it is unlikely that the Green Deal will be implemented by 2024. This percentage is 15% higher than last year’s survey. However, respondents show more optimism when it comes to the longer-term future of the Green Deal – with 61% saying that the European Commission will sustain its support for the Green Deal after the 2024 EU elections. In line with last year's results, 35% of the respondents see the lack of commitment by the EU Member States as the biggest obstacle to the Green Deal implementation. Sweden, which will hold the Presidency as of 1 January 2023, is seen as most committed, and Romania as least committed to the Green Deal agenda. Germany was listed as the most committed country in last year’s edition.

These are some of the highlights of the second edition of the IEEP European Green Deal Barometer.The full report, including policy recommendations, will be released in autumn.

Faustine Bas-Defossez, Director of External Impact at IEEP, said:
“It is deeply concerning that sustainability experts across the continent are losing confidence in a swift implementation of the European Green Deal, and that over 70% of them believe that the war in Ukraine will impact the Green Deal negatively. This high scepticism from experts should be a wake-up call for decision-makers as doubling down on the Green Deal is the only sound and safe way to increase energy and food security, while accelerating the green transition to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Walking into the trap of short-term solutions that hamper the green transition would just lead us to a no return point.”

The European Green Deal Barometer is produced by IEEP with the support of GlobeScan. You can view it here.

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