Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3 |
Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US | |
Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Pierce, David W. | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:3853-3864 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429650700042 |
WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET ; CONTERMINOUS UNITED-STATES ; SKEW-NORMAL-DISTRIBUTION ; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES ; TEMPERATURE ; LONG ; CALIFORNIA ; INDEXES ; ANALOGS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35241 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, 9500 Gilman Dr,Mail Code 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guirguis, Kristen,Gershunov, Alexander,Cayan, Daniel R.,et al. Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:3853-3864. |
APA | Guirguis, Kristen,Gershunov, Alexander,Cayan, Daniel R.,&Pierce, David W..(2018).Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,3853-3864. |
MLA | Guirguis, Kristen,et al."Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):3853-3864. |
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