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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3594-0 |
Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect | |
Shukla, Ravi P.1; Huang, Bohua1,2; Marx, L.1; Kinter, James L.1,2; Shin, Chul-Su1,2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:159-178 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study evaluates the seasonal predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational forecast model for subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). From a 50-year CFSv2 simulation, 21 wet, dry and normal ISM cases are chosen for a set of seasonal "predictions" with initial states in each month from January to May to conduct predictability experiments. For each prediction, a five-member ensemble is generated with perturbed atmospheric initial states and all predictions are integrated to the end of September. Based on the measures of correlation and root mean square error, the prediction skill decreases with lead month, with the initial states with the shortest lead (May initial states) generally showing the highest skill for predicting the summer mean (June to September; JJAS) rainfall, zonal wind at 850 hPa and sea surface temperature over the ISM region in the perfect model scenario. These predictability experiments are used to understand the finding reported by some recent studies that the NCEP CFSv2 seasonal retrospective forecasts generally have higher skill in predicting the ISM rainfall anomalies from February initial states than from May ones. Comparing the May climatologies generated by the February and May initialized CFSv2 retrospective forecasts, it is found that the latter shows larger bias over the Arabian Sea, with stronger monsoon winds, precipitation and surface latent heat flux. Although the atmospheric bias diminishes quickly after May, an accompanying cold bias persists in the Arabian Sea for several months. It is argued that a similar phenomenon does not occur in the predictability experiments in the perfect model scenario, because the initial shock is negligible in these experiments by design. Therefore, it is possible that the stronger model bias and initial shock in the May CFSv2 retrospective forecasts over the Arabian Sea may be a major factor in affecting ISM prediction skill. |
英文关键词 | Indian summer monsoon NCEP CFSv2 Implication of the initial shock effect Predictability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000422908700011 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; ARABIAN SEA ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; COUPLED MODEL ; NCEP CFSV2 ; OCEAN ; RAINFALL ; ENSO ; MECHANISMS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35217 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies COLA, 270 Res Hall,Mail Stop 6C5,4400 Univ Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shukla, Ravi P.,Huang, Bohua,Marx, L.,et al. Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:159-178. |
APA | Shukla, Ravi P.,Huang, Bohua,Marx, L.,Kinter, James L.,&Shin, Chul-Su.(2018).Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,159-178. |
MLA | Shukla, Ravi P.,et al."Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):159-178. |
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