Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NGEO3031 |
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C | |
Millar, Richard J.1,2; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.3; Friedlingstein, Pierre1; Rogelj, Joeri4,5; Grubb, Michael J.6; Matthews, H. Damon7; Skeie, Ragnhild B.3; Forster, Piers M.8; Frame, David J.9; Allen, Andmyles R.2,10 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE GEOSCIENCE |
ISSN | 1752-0894 |
EISSN | 1752-0908 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 10期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Norway; Austria; Switzerland; Canada; New Zealand |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 degrees C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 degrees C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate-carbon-cycle model with estimated ranges for key climate system properties from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Assuming emissions peak and decline to below current levels by 2030, and continue thereafter on a much steeper decline, which would be historically unprecedented but consistent with a standard ambitious mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), results in a likely range of peak warming of 1.2-2.0 degrees C above the mid-nineteenth century. If CO2 emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5 degrees C, with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation, net future cumulative CO2 emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250 GtC and unlikely greater than 540 GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412102200010 |
WOS关键词 | CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; ENERGY BUDGET ; CLIMATE MODEL ; CONSTRAINTS ; TARGETS ; AEROSOL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35017 |
专题 | 地球科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England; 2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 3.Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res Oslo CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway; 4.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Energy Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 5.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Univ Str 16, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland; 6.UCL, Inst Sustainable Resources, London WC1H 0NN, England; 7.Concordia Univ, Montreal, PQ H3G 1M8, Canada; 8.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 9.Victoria Univ Wellington, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, POB 600, Wellington, New Zealand; 10.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford OX1 3PJ, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Millar, Richard J.,Fuglestvedt, Jan S.,Friedlingstein, Pierre,et al. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2017,10(10). |
APA | Millar, Richard J..,Fuglestvedt, Jan S..,Friedlingstein, Pierre.,Rogelj, Joeri.,Grubb, Michael J..,...&Allen, Andmyles R..(2017).Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,10(10). |
MLA | Millar, Richard J.,et al."Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 10.10(2017). |
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