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Our Latest on Russia's War on Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began exactly one month ago yesterday. Our experts have been drawing on a vast body of relevant RAND research, providing key insights on important issues related to Russia's military; Ukraine's resistance; how the West can hold Putin accountable while preventing a wider conflict; the many political, diplomatic, and humanitarian implications of the crisis; and more.

Here's just a sample of what RAND researchers had to say in recent days:

• As underscored by reports of Russian soldiers deserting, convoys stalling, and tanks running out of fuel, the invasion has not gone as Moscow expected. William Marcellino and Michael McNerney explore how the spread of such images on social media is shaping and sustaining Ukrainians' will to fight. Elsewhere, Marek Posard and Khrystyna Holynska write that Russia's stumbles betray problems with its military personnel system.
• Marta Kepe and Anika Binnendijk, who have studied resistance and resilience in the Baltics, have stressed the importance of ensuring Ukrainian continuity of government. “Even if Russia's assault yields further gains in establishing territorial control,” they write, “Ukraine may still be able to thwart Russia's ability to solidify its political power.”
• William Courtney has weighed in on two fronts, noting that the interests of private businesses in Russia may be aligned with those of Ukraine and the West, and exploring how Western leaders could begin to prepare to engage any new Russian government that might emerge as a result of regime change in Moscow.
• As the Ukrainian refugee crisis continues to swell, Krishna Kumar has distilled lessons for host countries from RAND's body of research on Syrian refugee flows. His advice: Nations that protect people fleeing conflict should view this task not just as a humanitarian challenge but also as an economic opportunity.
• Michael Johnson highlights seven long-standing assumptions that NATO should drop. For example, the alliance can now jettison the idea that a major war in Europe (or Asia) will never happen because of economic interdependence. The West should also abandon the notion that Russia will never attack NATO because of the alliance's mutual-defense clause, Johnson says.
• According to Jeffrey Hornung, Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrates how the United States and its allies could prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan from becoming the world's next big crisis. Meanwhile, Derek Grossman has identified how lessons from the Russian invasion may apply to a scenario in which China attacks a different neighbor: Vietnam.
• U.S. leaders edging closer to a decision about whether to take bolder action against Russia should be wary of “imperative-driven judgment,” says Michael Mazarr. It's essential for the United States to “ask the right questions before, rather than after, taking large-scale action; to check its sense of duty and moralistic commitment; and…to be sure it finds its way to wise action, rather than a road to disaster.”
• The war in Ukraine is sure to be a watershed event. Raphael Cohen has outlined emerging trends that may upset the strategic balance in Europe. For instance, Russia will likely emerge weaker but not necessarily less dangerous, he says. And Europe will likely become stronger militarily, as well as less energy-dependent on and more unified against Russia.