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DOI | 10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation | |
Chiodo, Gabriel1; Oehrlein, Jessica1; Polvani, Lorenzo M.1,2; Fyfe, John C.3; Smith, Anne K.4 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE GEOSCIENCE |
ISSN | 1752-0894 |
EISSN | 1752-0908 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 12期号:2页码:94-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry-climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000457194900007 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; SIGNAL ; RECONSTRUCTION ; REPRESENTATION ; STRATOSPHERE ; TEMPERATURE ; TROPOSPHERE ; IRRADIANCE ; WEATHER ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34939 |
专题 | 地球科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Observ, Palisades, NY USA; 3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; 4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chiodo, Gabriel,Oehrlein, Jessica,Polvani, Lorenzo M.,et al. Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019,12(2):94-+. |
APA | Chiodo, Gabriel,Oehrlein, Jessica,Polvani, Lorenzo M.,Fyfe, John C.,&Smith, Anne K..(2019).Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,12(2),94-+. |
MLA | Chiodo, Gabriel,et al."Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 12.2(2019):94-+. |
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