资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Atlantic are subject to variability on interannual time scales but during the last 20 years this variability has shown comparatively little activity. In late 2019, however, a warm event developed that was probably the strongest in the satellite observation period. Analysis suggests that zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic contributed to the development of the warm SST anomalies. Furthermore, wind stress curl anomalies north of the equator generated downwelling Rossby waves that propagated to the western boundary and were reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves that helped to precondition the event. Neither the contemporaneous positive Indian Ocean Dipole nor the El Niño Modoki appear to have contributed substantially to the Atlantic warming, though some uncertainty remains. Based on large-scale multidecadal variability patterns, a return to enhanced variability is not imminent but careful monitoring will be important.