资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Auroral substorm onset locations are highly unpredictable. Previous studies have shown that the B_y component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) explains ∼5% of the variation in onset magnetic local time (MLT), while solar wind conditions and the other IMF components have even less explanatory power. In this study we show that the level of geomagnetic activity prior to substorm onset, as indicated by the AL index, explains an additional ∼5% of the variation in onset MLT. We discuss our results with regard to recent modeling studies, which show that gradients in the ionospheric Hall conductance can lead to a duskward shift of the magnetotail dynamics. Our findings suggest that this magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling effect may also influence the location of substorm onsets.