Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 |
Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea | |
Murakami, Hiroyuki1,2; Vecchi, Gabriel A.3,4; Underwood, Seth1 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)-defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s(-1)-were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417014700015 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONES ; FUTURE CHANGES ; PACIFIC ; CLIMATOLOGY ; HURRICANES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34627 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 2.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 3.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Murakami, Hiroyuki,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,Underwood, Seth. Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(12). |
APA | Murakami, Hiroyuki,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,&Underwood, Seth.(2017).Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(12). |
MLA | Murakami, Hiroyuki,et al."Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.12(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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