Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021WR030531 |
A coupled dynamic system inversion model for higher accuracy in flood forecasting | |
Yixin Huang; Zhongmin Liang; Vijay P. Singh; Yiming Hu; Binquan Li; Jun Wang | |
2022-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research
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出版年 | 2022 |
英文摘要 | Flood routing is a critical component of real-time flood forecasting and plays a pivotal role in reducing economic and life losses due to flooding. However, flood routing always possesses errors because it is affected by various sources of uncertainty, which are transmitted and accumulated in the routing process from upstream to downstream, particularly for long or complex river systems. Thus, a real-time error correction is rapidly becoming a key measure for reducing errors and improving flood forecasting accuracy. In this study, a dynamic system inversion (DSI) model was developed as a new correction method to update forecasting errors for long river systems. The new method utilizes all observed, forecasted, and corrected information at upstream stations and couples the matrix-based Muskingum routing method with an error-inversed updating technique to form the DSI equation. Multisource spatiotemporal errors of the river system are simultaneously combined into the DSI equation, and the discharges at the downstream station are reforecasted, thereby providing error correction in flood routing. Based on a case study on the Le’an River (China), the DSI model performed better than the traditional autoregressive (AR) model based on five metrics for both small and large flood events. Moreover, with an increase in lead time, the metrics of AR deteriorated rapidly, whereas that of DSI deteriorated slightly. In conclusion, the proposed DSI model is a sophisticated and robust method for flood routing and provides a new alternative for error correction in flood routing simulations of complex river systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/346129 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yixin Huang,Zhongmin Liang,Vijay P. Singh,et al. A coupled dynamic system inversion model for higher accuracy in flood forecasting[J]. Water Resources Research,2022. |
APA | Yixin Huang,Zhongmin Liang,Vijay P. Singh,Yiming Hu,Binquan Li,&Jun Wang.(2022).A coupled dynamic system inversion model for higher accuracy in flood forecasting.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Yixin Huang,et al."A coupled dynamic system inversion model for higher accuracy in flood forecasting".Water Resources Research (2022). |
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