Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-017-0034-4 |
Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification | |
Park, Chang-Eui1; Jeong, Su-Jong1; Joshi, Manoj2; Osborn, Timothy J.2; Ho, Chang-Hoi3; Piao, Shilong4,5,6; Chen, Deliang7; Liu, Junguo1; Yang, Hong8,9; Park, Hoonyoung3; Kim, Baek-Min10; Feng, Song11 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:1页码:70-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England; South Korea; Sweden; Switzerland; USA |
英文摘要 | Aridity-the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)-is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification(1-6). However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability-defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)-is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies(7-10). Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 degrees C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 degrees C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 degrees C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423840000023 |
WOS关键词 | WATER ; DRYLANDS ; DROUGHT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34587 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol SUSTECH, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China; 2.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England; 3.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden; 8.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, EAWAG, Dubendorf, Switzerland; 9.Univ Basel, Fac Sci, Basel, Switzerland; 10.Korea Polar Res Inst, Incheon, South Korea; 11.Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Park, Chang-Eui,Jeong, Su-Jong,Joshi, Manoj,et al. Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(1):70-+. |
APA | Park, Chang-Eui.,Jeong, Su-Jong.,Joshi, Manoj.,Osborn, Timothy J..,Ho, Chang-Hoi.,...&Feng, Song.(2018).Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(1),70-+. |
MLA | Park, Chang-Eui,et al."Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.1(2018):70-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论