Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3208 |
COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts | |
Bosetti, Valentina1,2; Weber, Elke3; Berger, Loic2,4; Budescu, David V.5; Liu, Ning1,2; Tavoni, Massimo2,6 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; USA; France |
英文摘要 | Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group(1). We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports(2,3). In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396349400011 |
WOS关键词 | UNCERTAINTY ; PROBABILITY ; SCIENCES ; JUDGMENT ; ADVICE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34574 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Bocconi Univ, Dept Econ, I-20121 Milan, Italy; 2.Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-20136 Milan, Italy; 3.Princeton Univ, Dept Psychol, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 4.IESEG Sch Management, F-59000 Lille, France; 5.Fordham Univ, Dept Psychol, Bronx, NY 10458 USA; 6.Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, I-20156 Milan, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bosetti, Valentina,Weber, Elke,Berger, Loic,et al. COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(3). |
APA | Bosetti, Valentina,Weber, Elke,Berger, Loic,Budescu, David V.,Liu, Ning,&Tavoni, Massimo.(2017).COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(3). |
MLA | Bosetti, Valentina,et al."COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.3(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论