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DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends | |
Zhang, Liping1,2; Delworth, Thomas L.1,2; Cooke, William2,3; Yang, Xiaosong2,3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:1页码:59-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends. These observed trends are consistent with a particular phase of natural variability of the Southern Ocean as derived from climate model simulations. Ensembles of simulations are conducted starting from differing phases of this variability. The observed spatial pattern of trends is reproduced in simulations that start from an active phase of Southern Ocean convection. Simulations starting from a neutral phase do not reproduce the observed changes, similarly to the multimodel mean results of CMIP5 models. The long timescales associated with this natural variability show potential for skilful decadal prediction. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453600200019 |
WOS关键词 | ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; DEEP-CONVECTION ; CMIP5 MODELS ; FRESH-WATER ; ATLANTIC ; IMPACT ; PENINSULA ; POLYNYA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34560 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 3.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Liping,Delworth, Thomas L.,Cooke, William,et al. Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(1):59-+. |
APA | Zhang, Liping,Delworth, Thomas L.,Cooke, William,&Yang, Xiaosong.(2019).Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(1),59-+. |
MLA | Zhang, Liping,et al."Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.1(2019):59-+. |
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