Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0116-y |
Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes | |
Lopez, Hosmay1,2; West, Robert3; Dong, Shenfu2; Goni, Gustavo2; Kirtman, Ben1; Lee, Sang-Ki2; Atlas, Robert2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:5页码:414-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence (ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431139900025 |
WOS关键词 | LOW-LEVEL JET ; NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; PART I ; PRECIPITATION ; EXTREMES ; PLAINS ; AMPLIFICATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34541 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Miami, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Studies, Miami, FL 33146 USA; 2.NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA; 3.Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lopez, Hosmay,West, Robert,Dong, Shenfu,et al. Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(5):414-+. |
APA | Lopez, Hosmay.,West, Robert.,Dong, Shenfu.,Goni, Gustavo.,Kirtman, Ben.,...&Atlas, Robert.(2018).Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(5),414-+. |
MLA | Lopez, Hosmay,et al."Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.5(2018):414-+. |
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