Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0197-7 |
Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement | |
Holden, P. B.1; Edwards, N. R.1,2; Ridgwell, A.3; Wilkinson, R. D.4; Fraedrich, K.5; Lunkeit, F.6; Pollitt, H.2,7; Mercure, J. -F.2,7,8; Salas, P.2; Lam, A.2,9; Knobloch, F.2,8; Chewpreecha, U.7; Vinuales, J. E.2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:7页码:609-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA; Germany; Netherlands; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement(1) aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with "holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C". The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions(2) and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climatecarbon- cycle system(3). Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon-cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7 degrees C, or end-of-century warming to less than 1.54 degrees C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 gigatonnes of carbon and 307 gigatonnes of carbon post-2017 emissions respectively, quantifying the spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonization decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision-making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (which can explain 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440200100021 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; EMISSIONS ; OCEAN ; PROJECTIONS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34537 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Open Univ, Environm Earth & Ecosyst Sci, Milton Keynes, Bucks, England; 2.Univ Cambridge, Cambridge Ctr Environm Energy & Nat Resource Gove, Cambridge, England; 3.Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Earth Sci, Riverside, CA 92521 USA; 4.Univ Sheffield, Sch Math & Stat, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England; 5.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, KlimaCampus, Hamburg, Germany; 6.Univ Hamburg, Meteorol Inst, Hamburg, Germany; 7.Cambridge Econometr Ltd, Cambridge, England; 8.Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Fac Sci, Nijmegen, Netherlands; 9.Univ Macao, Dept Econ, Fac Social Sci, Taipa, Macao, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Holden, P. B.,Edwards, N. R.,Ridgwell, A.,et al. Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(7):609-+. |
APA | Holden, P. B..,Edwards, N. R..,Ridgwell, A..,Wilkinson, R. D..,Fraedrich, K..,...&Vinuales, J. E..(2018).Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(7),609-+. |
MLA | Holden, P. B.,et al."Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.7(2018):609-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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