Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3352 |
Less than 2 degrees C warming by 2100 unlikely | |
Raftery, Adrian E.1; Zimmer, Alec2; Frierson, Dargan M. W.3; Startz, Richard4; Liu, Peiran1 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use(1). However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries(2-4), we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 degrees C, with median 3.2 degrees C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2 degrees C (1.5 degrees C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. Our model is not a 'business as usual' scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 degrees C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408769500013 |
WOS关键词 | POPULATION PROJECTIONS ; EMISSIONS ; POLICY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34525 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Upstart, POB 1503, San Carlos, CA 94070 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Box 351640, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Econ, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Raftery, Adrian E.,Zimmer, Alec,Frierson, Dargan M. W.,et al. Less than 2 degrees C warming by 2100 unlikely[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(9). |
APA | Raftery, Adrian E.,Zimmer, Alec,Frierson, Dargan M. W.,Startz, Richard,&Liu, Peiran.(2017).Less than 2 degrees C warming by 2100 unlikely.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(9). |
MLA | Raftery, Adrian E.,et al."Less than 2 degrees C warming by 2100 unlikely".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.9(2017). |
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