Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3 |
A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling | |
Mori, Masato1; Kosaka, Yu1; Watanabe, Masahiro2; Nakamura, Hisashi1; Kimoto, Masahide2 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:2页码:123-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | Northern midlatitudes, over central Eurasia in particular, have experienced frequent severe winters in recent decades(1-3). A remote influence of Arctic sea-ice loss has been suggested(4-14); however, the importance of this connection remains controversial because of discrepancies among modelling and between modelling and observational studies(15-17). Here, using a hybrid analysis of observations and multi-model large ensembles from seven atmospheric general circulation models, we examine the cause of these differences. While all models capture the observed structure of the forced surface temperature response to sea-ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas-including Eurasian cooling-we show that its magnitude is systematically underestimated. Owing to the varying degrees of this underestimation of sea-ice-forced signal, the signal-to-noise ratio differs markedly. Correcting this underestimation reconciles the discrepancy between models and observations, leading to the conclusion that similar to 44% of the central Eurasian cooling trend for 1995-2014 is attributable to sea-ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas. Our results strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has significantly amplified the probability of severe winter occurrence in central Eurasia via enhanced melting of the Barents-Kara sea ice. The difference in underestimation of signal-to-noise ratio between models therefore calls for careful experimental design and interpretation for regional climate change attribution. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456994900016 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS ; SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; MIDLATITUDE WEATHER ; COLD WINTERS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34510 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tokyo, Res Ctr Adv Sci & Technol, Tokyo, Japan; 2.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Chiba, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mori, Masato,Kosaka, Yu,Watanabe, Masahiro,et al. A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(2):123-+. |
APA | Mori, Masato,Kosaka, Yu,Watanabe, Masahiro,Nakamura, Hisashi,&Kimoto, Masahide.(2019).A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(2),123-+. |
MLA | Mori, Masato,et al."A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.2(2019):123-+. |
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