Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.16072 |
Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe | |
Aggeliki Doxa; Yiannis Kamarianakis; Antonios D. Mazaris | |
2022-01-12 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2022 |
英文摘要 | Climate plays a major role in shaping biodiversity patterns over time and space, with ongoing changes leading to the reorganization of ecosystems, which challenges conservation initiatives. Identifying areas that could serve as possible climate change refugia for future biodiversity is, thus, critical for both conservation and management. Here, we identify potential future climatic refugia within the Euro-Mediterranean biome, which is a global biodiversity hotspot, while accounting for multiple emission climate change projections over the next 50 years. We developed two metrics of climatic variability: temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity. We then used a systematic conservation planning approach to identify climate-based priority areas. While we used a climate-based, species-neutral methodology, we deliberately implemented low climatic velocity thresholds, so that the identified climatic refugia would even be compatible with the needs of species with low dispersal capacity, such as plants. Our projections showed that future climatic refugia would be more frequently observed in mid-altitudes, for gradients with steep elevations, and mainly in the eastern part of the Euro-Mediterranean biome, with possible conflicts with existing land uses and future conservation implications. Climatic, land use, and topography results indicated that only a limited number of refugia would be hosted by high elevation habitats (>1500 m), raising possible concerns about the biodiversity of Mediterranean mountain regions. Our analyses show that the current network of protected areas captures future climatic refugia disproportionally, despite their importance for safeguarding present and future biodiversity in the Mediterranean. Key climatic refugia could limit the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity in mid-altitude and mountainous regions, and should be included in management guidelines for a climate-ready conservation design in the Mediterranean biome. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/345081 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Aggeliki Doxa,Yiannis Kamarianakis,Antonios D. Mazaris. Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe[J]. Global Change Biology,2022. |
APA | Aggeliki Doxa,Yiannis Kamarianakis,&Antonios D. Mazaris.(2022).Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Aggeliki Doxa,et al."Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe".Global Change Biology (2022). |
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