Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y |
Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement | |
Sigmond, Michael; Fyfe, John C.; Swart, Neil C. | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:5页码:404-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5-2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 degrees C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 degrees C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431139900023 |
WOS关键词 | 2 DEGREES-C ; SEA-ICE ; IMPACTS ; VARIABILITY ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34470 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sigmond, Michael,Fyfe, John C.,Swart, Neil C.. Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(5):404-+. |
APA | Sigmond, Michael,Fyfe, John C.,&Swart, Neil C..(2018).Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(5),404-+. |
MLA | Sigmond, Michael,et al."Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.5(2018):404-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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