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DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3287 |
Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation | |
Pfahl, S.1; 39;Gorman, P. A.2 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; USA |
英文摘要 | Changes in extreme precipitation are among the most impact-relevant consequences of climate warming(1), yet regional projections remain uncertain due to natural variability(2) and model deficiencies in relevant physical processes(3,4). To better understand changes in extreme precipitation, they may be decomposed into contributions from atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics(5-7), but these are typically diagnosed with spatially aggregated data(8,9) or using a statistical approach that is not valid at all locations(10,11). Here we decompose the forced response of daily regional scale extreme precipitation in climate-model simulations into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions using a robustphysical diagnostic(8). We show that thermodynamics alone would lead to a spatially homogeneous fractional increase, which is consistent across models and dominates the sign of the change in most regions. However, the dynamic contribution modifies regional responses, amplifying increases, for instance, in the Asian monsoon region, but weakening them across the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia. Over subtropical oceans, the dynamic contribution is strong enough to cause robust regional decreases in extreme precipitation, which may partly result from a poleward circulation shift. The dynamic contribution is key to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme precipitation. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402461300015 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; MODELS ; SIMULATIONS ; CIRCULATION ; INCREASES ; FREQUENCY ; ENSEMBLE ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34418 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 2.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pfahl, S.,39;Gorman, P. A.. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(6). |
APA | Pfahl, S.,&39;Gorman, P. A..(2017).Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(6). |
MLA | Pfahl, S.,et al."Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.6(2017). |
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