Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-017-0031-7 |
Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change | |
Beckage, Brian1,2; Gross, Louis J.3,4,5; Lacasse, Katherine6; Carr, Eric5; Metcalf, Sara S.7; Winter, Jonathan M.8; Howe, Peter D.9; Fefferman, Nina3,4,5; Franck, Travis10; Zia, Asim11; Kinzig, Ann12; Hoffman, Forrest M.13 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:1页码:79-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 degrees C by 2100 compared with 4.9 degrees C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 degrees C versus 3.5 degrees C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423840000025 |
WOS关键词 | PLANNED BEHAVIOR ; FLOOD ; RISK ; ATTRIBUTION ; PERCEPTIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34409 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Vermont, Dept Plant Biol, Burlington, VT 05405 USA; 2.Univ Vermont, Dept Comp Sci, Burlington, VT 05405 USA; 3.Univ Tennessee, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Knoxville, TN USA; 4.Univ Tennessee, Dept Math, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA; 5.Univ Tennessee, Natl Inst Math & Biol Synth, Knoxville, TN USA; 6.Rhode Isl Coll, Dept Psychol, Providence, RI 02908 USA; 7.SUNY Buffalo, Dept Geog, Buffalo, NY USA; 8.Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Hanover, NH 03755 USA; 9.Utah State Univ, Dept Environm & Soc, Logan, UT 84322 USA; 10.Climate Interact, Belmont, MA USA; 11.Univ Vermont, Community Dev & Appl Econ, Burlington, VT USA; 12.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ USA; 13.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beckage, Brian,Gross, Louis J.,Lacasse, Katherine,et al. Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(1):79-+. |
APA | Beckage, Brian.,Gross, Louis J..,Lacasse, Katherine.,Carr, Eric.,Metcalf, Sara S..,...&Hoffman, Forrest M..(2018).Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(1),79-+. |
MLA | Beckage, Brian,et al."Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.1(2018):79-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论