Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8 |
Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 degrees C compared to 2 degrees C warming | |
Jahn, Alexandra1,2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:5页码:409-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer seaice impacts would vary under the 1.5 degrees C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 degrees C rather than 2.0 degrees C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 degrees C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 degrees C. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431139900024 |
WOS关键词 | ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; MARINE MAMMALS ; IMPACTS ; SIMULATIONS ; RETREAT ; MODELS ; TRENDS ; COVER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34406 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jahn, Alexandra. Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 degrees C compared to 2 degrees C warming[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(5):409-+. |
APA | Jahn, Alexandra.(2018).Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 degrees C compared to 2 degrees C warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(5),409-+. |
MLA | Jahn, Alexandra."Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 degrees C compared to 2 degrees C warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.5(2018):409-+. |
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