Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7689 |
Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification | |
Soteriades, A. D.1; Murray-Rust, D.2; Trabucco, A.3; Metzger, M. J.1 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; Italy |
英文摘要 | Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change. |
英文关键词 | climate change RCP stratification climate analogue climate service climate change scenario |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406139000002 |
WOS关键词 | CROSS-VALIDATION ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; VEGETATION MODEL ; CARBON BALANCE ; RANDOM FORESTS ; CLASSIFICATION ; SHIFTS ; ZONES ; BIODIVERSITY ; UNCERTAINTY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34325 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Drummond St, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Univ Edinburgh, Design Informat, Evolut House, Edinburgh EH1 2LE, Midlothian, Scotland; 3.Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Impacts Agr Forests & Ecosyst Serv Div, Via Nicola 25, I-07100 Sassari, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Soteriades, A. D.,Murray-Rust, D.,Trabucco, A.,et al. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(8). |
APA | Soteriades, A. D.,Murray-Rust, D.,Trabucco, A.,&Metzger, M. J..(2017).Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(8). |
MLA | Soteriades, A. D.,et al."Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.8(2017). |
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