Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105653

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105653
	Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters
	Alena Miftakhova
	2021
出版年	2021
国家	瑞士
领域	资源环境
英文摘要	Climate policy decisions rely heavily on the predictions of climate–economic models. These models are known to be sensitive to their initial assumptions and parameterization. Despite the broad literature exploring this sensitivity, universal, well-established practices are still lacking in this field. This paper endorses a holistic, global approach to sensitivity analysis and advocates it as an indispensable routine in climate–economic modeling. An application of a highly-efficient method of global sensitivity analysis to the seemingly simple case of the DICE model provides two fundamental insights. First, only global and comprehensive—as opposed to local or selective—sensitivity analysis can deliver a full and trustworthy picture of the effect of parameters' uncertainty on the model's solution. Second, a comprehensive decomposition of the uncertainty in the model's output is achievable at modest computational costs. Such decomposition is thus desired and potentially attainable for climate–economic models of higher complexity.
URL	查看原文
来源平台	Centre for Energy Policy and Economics
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/343115
专题	资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alena Miftakhova. Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters,2021.