Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5386 |
A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall | |
Parker, Hannah R.1; Lott, Fraser C.2; Cornforth, Rosalind J.3; Mitchell, Daniel M.4; Sparrow, Sarah5; Wallom, David5 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | In 2012, heavy rainfall resulted in flooding and devastating impacts across West Africa. With many people highly vulnerable to such events in this region, this study investigates whether anthropogenic climate change has influenced such heavy precipitation events. We use a probabilistic event attribution approach to assess the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, by comparing the probability of such an event occurring in climate model simulations with all known climate forcings to those where natural forcings only are simulated. An ensemble of simulations from 10 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is compared to two much larger ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations, from the Met Office model HadGEM3-A and from weather@home with a regional version of HadAM3P. These are used to assess whether the choice of model ensemble influences the attribution statement that can be made. Results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have decreased the probability of high precipitation across most of the model ensembles. However, the magnitude and confidence intervals of the decrease depend on the ensemble used, with more certainty in the magnitude in the atmosphere-only model ensembles due to larger ensemble sizes from single models with more constrained simulations. Certainty is greatly decreased when considering a CMIP5 ensemble that can represent the relevant teleconnections due to a decrease in ensemble members. An increase in probability of high precipitation in HadGEM3-A using the observed trend in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for natural simulations highlights the need to ensure that estimates of natural SSTs are consistent with observed trends in order for results to be robust. Further work is needed to establish how anthropogenic forcings are affecting the rainfall processes in these simulations in order to better understand the differences in the overall effect. |
英文关键词 | attribution climate change precipitation West Africa |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394608500002 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; SAHEL RAINFALL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DROUGHT ; CMIP5 ; 20TH-CENTURY ; WEATHER ; SEASONS ; OCEAN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34302 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 3.Univ Reading, Walker Inst, Reading RG6 6AR, Berks, England; 4.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 5.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford OX1 3QG, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parker, Hannah R.,Lott, Fraser C.,Cornforth, Rosalind J.,et al. A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(1). |
APA | Parker, Hannah R.,Lott, Fraser C.,Cornforth, Rosalind J.,Mitchell, Daniel M.,Sparrow, Sarah,&Wallom, David.(2017).A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(1). |
MLA | Parker, Hannah R.,et al."A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.1(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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