Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa66b8 |
Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake | |
Lovenduski, Nicole S.1,2; Bonan, Gordon B.3 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere regulates atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and affects Earth's climate, yet global carbon cycle projections over the next century are highly uncertain. Here, we quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in cumulative ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake over 2006-2100 by performing an analysis of variance on output from an ensemble of 12 Earth System Models. Whereas uncertainty in projections of global ocean carbon accumulation by 2100 is <100 Pg C and driven primarily by emission scenario, uncertainty in projections of global terrestrial carbon accumulation by 2100 is >160 Pg C and driven primarily by model structure. To statistically reduce uncertainty in terrestrial carbon projections, we devise schemes to weight the models based on their ability to represent the observed change in carbon accumulation over 1959-2005. The weighting schemes incrementally reduce uncertainty to a minimum value of 125 Pg C in 2100, but this reduction requires an impractical observational constraint. We suggest that a focus on reducing multimodel spread may not make terrestrial carbon cycle projections more reliable, and instead advocate for accurate observations, improved process understanding, and a multitude of modeling approaches. |
英文关键词 | carbon cycle terrestrial ecosystem model carbon sinks climate model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399281300002 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM ; LAND-USE ; CLIMATE ; CO2 ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; MODELS ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34298 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Inst Arct & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lovenduski, Nicole S.,Bonan, Gordon B.. Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4). |
APA | Lovenduski, Nicole S.,&Bonan, Gordon B..(2017).Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4). |
MLA | Lovenduski, Nicole S.,et al."Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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