Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
COVID-19: From Rescue to Transformative Recovery in 2022? | |
admin | |
2021-12-07 | |
发布年 | 2021 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 欧洲 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
正文(英文) | From its onset, the COVID-19 crisis had the potential to either drive the structural macrofinancial transformative recovery needed to deliver global decarbonization, or entrench the systemic issues which preceded the crisis. 2021 closes with this same fraught potential. A testament to the nature of political and socioeconomic change, it takes the form of uneven and combined developments which can only be understood in concert, and with hindsight. As we approach two years since the onset of the pandemic, this moment marks a critical juncture for assessing global green structural transformation and continuing to push the agenda forward. Decarbonization is a project to undertake a planned and coordinated unwinding of the fossil economy. Concrete investments, disinvestments, regulations, planning, and public economic coordination, whether as tools or processes, work in harmony to manage the decline of fossil fuels and the rollout of a clean economy. Structural and persistent deficiencies in the macroeconomic architecture preceding the COVID-19 crisis are obstacles to this. Before the crisis, the global economy was in a state of secular stagnation, where underinvestment drives stagnation which further depresses investment. It was subject to systemic vulnerabilities such as overstretched supply chains, exposed to macrofinancial instability, driven by financialization and underinvestment in the real economy and public infrastructure. Developing countries suffered these conditions, as well as structural limits to fiscal capacity, including unsustainable debt without recourse to restructuring or relief; vulnerability to capital flight; issues of “hot” portfolio flows; and diminishing international fiscal transfers as political austerity worsened post-2008. Another primary challenge facing public and private credit allocation and fiscal spending is that investment is not yet systematically Paris-aligned. Policies and governance systems are needed to direct public spending and private credit allocation away from fossil fuels and towards decarbonization. Finally, public institutions from central banks to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have yet to embrace the agenda of creating the conditions for deep decarbonization. As the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Report showed, global economic recovery diverges between developed and developing countries, and is anemic. There are signs the recovery is losing momentum and is fragile in the face of a prolonged pandemic, the return of fiscal austerity, and political, policy, and economic responses. Moreover, using 2020 data, the Global Recovery Observatory characterized only 21.7% of rescue and recovery spending globally as “green.” This is fractious political terrain going into next year and the rest of a decade that must be about deep decarbonization. Yet, the moment has its openings, which leaves critical outstanding questions for transformative recovery.
An extended version of this analysis will appear in E3G’s Recovery Report newsletter next week. The Recovery Report newsletter takes stock on political and economic developments against the the goal of a global recovery and transformed macrofinancial system that can deliver the investment needed for a global climate transition. To subscribe to the newsletter, email recovery.report@e3g.org |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | E3G |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/342940 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. COVID-19: From Rescue to Transformative Recovery in 2022?. 2021. |
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