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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa632 |
The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change | |
Evans, Jason P.1,2; Kay, Merlinde3; Prasad, Abhnil1,2; Pitman, Andy1,2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement limits global average temperature rise to 2 degrees C and commits to pursuing efforts in limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. This will require rapid reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the eventual decarbonisation of the global economy. Wind energy is an established technology to help achieve emissions reductions, with a cumulative global installed capacity of similar to 486 GW (2016). Focusing on Australia, we assess the future economic viability of wind energy using a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution regional climate simulations forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) output. We examine both near future (around 2030) and far future (around 2070) changes. Extractable wind power changes vary across the continent, though the most spatially coherent change is a small but significant decrease across southern regions. The cost of future wind energy generation, measured via the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), increases negligibly in the future in regions with significant existing installed capacity. Technological developments in wind energy generation more than compensate for projected small reductions in wind, decreasing the LCOE by around 30%. These developments ensure viability for existing wind farms, and enhance the economic viability of proposed wind farms in Western Australian and Tasmania. Wind energy is therefore a resilient source of electricity over most of Australia and technological innovation entering the market will open new regions for energy production in the future. |
英文关键词 | wind energy regional climate change economic costs NARCliM regional projections Australia |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000424232400001 |
WOS关键词 | PROJECTIONS ; MODEL ; EUROPE ; ELECTRICITY ; ENSEMBLES ; NARCLIM ; SOLAR |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34280 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.Univ New South Wales, Sch Photovolta & Renewable Energy Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Evans, Jason P.,Kay, Merlinde,Prasad, Abhnil,et al. The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(2). |
APA | Evans, Jason P.,Kay, Merlinde,Prasad, Abhnil,&Pitman, Andy.(2018).The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(2). |
MLA | Evans, Jason P.,et al."The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.2(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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