Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab212 |
Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways | |
Mogollon, J. M.1,4; Lassaletta, L.1,2,3; Beusen, A. H. W.1,2; van Grinsven, H. J. M.2; Westhoek, H.2; Bouwman, A. F.1,2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; Spain |
英文摘要 | Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs in agriculture strongly outpace the outputs at the global scale due to inefficiencies in cropland N use. While improvement in agricultural practices and environmental legislation in developed regions such as Western Europe have led to a remarkable increase in the N use efficiency since 1985, this lower requirement for reactive N inputs via synthetic fertilizers has yet to occur in many developing and transition regions. Here, we explore future N input requirements and N use efficiency in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. Results show that under the most optimistic sustainability scenario, the global synthetic fertilizer use in croplands stabilizes and even shrinks (85 Tg N yr(-1) in 2050) regardless of the increase in crop production required to feed the larger estimated population. This scenario is highly dependent on projected increases in N use efficiency, particularly in South and East Asia. In our most pessimistic scenario, synthetic fertilization application rates are expected to increase almost threefold by 2050 (260 Tg N yr(-1)). Excepting the sustainability scenario, all other projected scenarios reveal that the areal N surpluses will exceed acceptable limits in most of the developing regions. |
英文关键词 | nitrogen shared socioeconomic pathways fertilizer |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428386100002 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; RETENTION ; NUTRIENT ; CYCLES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34277 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands; 2.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands; 3.Univ Politecn Madrid, CEIGRAM, Dept Agr Prod, E-28040 Madrid, Spain; 4.Leiden Univ, Inst Environm Sci CML, POB 9518, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mogollon, J. M.,Lassaletta, L.,Beusen, A. H. W.,et al. Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(4). |
APA | Mogollon, J. M.,Lassaletta, L.,Beusen, A. H. W.,van Grinsven, H. J. M.,Westhoek, H.,&Bouwman, A. F..(2018).Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(4). |
MLA | Mogollon, J. M.,et al."Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.4(2018). |
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