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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa751c |
Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate | |
Bador, Margot1,2,3; Terray, Laurent3; Boe, Julien3; Somot, Samuel4; Alias, Antoinette4; Gibelin, Anne-Laure5; Dubuisson, Brigitte5 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; France |
英文摘要 | This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (similar to 12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 degrees C to almost 13 degrees C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models. |
英文关键词 | future mega-heatwave future extreme and record-breaking temperatures temperature amplification by soil-atmosphere interactions EURO-CORDEX regional climate model CMIP5 global climate model SQR observations of daily maximum temperature spatial clustering of extreme events |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406020000001 |
WOS关键词 | INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; IMPACT ; WAVE ; CORDEX ; MAXIMA ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34257 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New South Wales, Sch BEES, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 2.Univ New South Wales, Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Australian Res Council, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 3.CNRS, CERFACS, CECI, Climat Environm Couplages & Incertitudes,UMR 5318, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France; 4.CNRS, CNRM, UMR 3589, Meteo France, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France; 5.Meteo France, Direct Climatol & Serv Climat, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bador, Margot,Terray, Laurent,Boe, Julien,et al. Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(7). |
APA | Bador, Margot.,Terray, Laurent.,Boe, Julien.,Somot, Samuel.,Alias, Antoinette.,...&Dubuisson, Brigitte.(2017).Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(7). |
MLA | Bador, Margot,et al."Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.7(2017). |
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