Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL095500 |
Improving the estimation of human climate influence by selecting appropriate forcing simulations | |
Chao Li; Zhaoyun Wang; Francis Zwiers; Xuebin Zhang | |
2021-11-24 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The regression-based optimal fingerprinting is a key tool for quantifying human climate influence. Most studies over the past decade used Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, limiting fingerprinting regression configuration options. The CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) provides several types of individual forcing simulations and thus greater configuration flexibility. To avoid overfitting the limited observational data, we suggest that a DAMIP-based perfect model study is first used to best configure the fingerprinting regression prior to its application to observations. We find that a regression using all-forcing, aerosol-only, and natural-only simulations is an overall best option for constraining human-induced global terrestrial warming, which differs from choices commonly made previously. Applying this configuration to observations, we estimate that of the observed terrestrial warming of ∼1.5°C between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020, anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributed 1.4 to 2.3°C, offset by aerosol cooling of 0.2 to 1.2°C. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/342394 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chao Li,Zhaoyun Wang,Francis Zwiers,et al. Improving the estimation of human climate influence by selecting appropriate forcing simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Chao Li,Zhaoyun Wang,Francis Zwiers,&Xuebin Zhang.(2021).Improving the estimation of human climate influence by selecting appropriate forcing simulations.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Chao Li,et al."Improving the estimation of human climate influence by selecting appropriate forcing simulations".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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