Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3381 |
Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming | |
Brown, Patrick T.1; Ming, Yi2; Li, Wenhong3; Hill, Spencer A.4,5 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modelling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual pre-industrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412007700022 |
WOS关键词 | NONSTATIONARY TIME-SERIES ; COUPLED CLIMATE MODELS ; OCEAN DEEP CONVECTION ; SOUTHERN-OCEAN ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; PART I ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SIMULATIONS ; HIATUS ; LAND |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34233 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 3.Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Earth & Ocean Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA; 4.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 5.CALTECH, Div Geol & Planetary Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Brown, Patrick T.,Ming, Yi,Li, Wenhong,et al. Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(10). |
APA | Brown, Patrick T.,Ming, Yi,Li, Wenhong,&Hill, Spencer A..(2017).Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(10). |
MLA | Brown, Patrick T.,et al."Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.10(2017). |
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