Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3181 |
Projected increase in El Nino-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific | |
Chand, Savin S.1; Tory, Kevin J.2; Ye, Hua2; Walsh, Kevin J. E.3 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | The El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world(1-3). However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming(4-8) will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins(9-11). Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (similar to 20-40%) during future-climate El Nino events compared with present-climate El Nino events-and less frequent during future-climate La Nina events-around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database(12), forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Nino-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396348500013 |
WOS关键词 | GENESIS POTENTIAL INDEX ; CLIMATE MODELS ; ENSO REGIMES ; CMIP5 ; IMPACT ; CYCLOGENESIS ; VARIABILITY ; PERFORMANCE ; SIMULATION ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34212 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Federat Univ Australia, Ctr Informat & Appl Optimizat, Mt Helen, Vic 3353, Australia; 2.Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia; 3.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chand, Savin S.,Tory, Kevin J.,Ye, Hua,et al. Projected increase in El Nino-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(2). |
APA | Chand, Savin S.,Tory, Kevin J.,Ye, Hua,&Walsh, Kevin J. E..(2017).Projected increase in El Nino-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(2). |
MLA | Chand, Savin S.,et al."Projected increase in El Nino-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.2(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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