Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3265 |
Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans | |
Kwiatkowski, Lester1; Bopp, Laurent1,2; Aumont, Olivier3; Ciais, Philippe1; Cox, Peter M.4; Laufkotter, Charlotte5; Li, Yue6; Seferian, Roland7 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; England; USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Marine primary production is a fundamental component of the Earth system, providing the main source of food and energy to the marine food web, and influencing the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (refs 1,2). Earth system model (ESM) projections of global marine primary production are highly uncertain with models projecting both increases(3,4) and declines of up to 20% by 2100(5,6). This uncertainty is predominantly driven by the sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to climate change, with the latest ESMs suggesting twenty-first-century tropical declines of between 1 and 30% (refs 5,6). Here we identify an emergent relationship(7-11) between the long-term sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to rising equatorial zone sea surface temperature (SST) and the interannual sensitivity of primary production to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven SST anomalies. Satellite-based observations of the ENSO sensitivity of tropical primary production are then used to constrain projections of the long-term climate impact on primary production. We estimate that tropical primary production will decline by 3 +/- 1% per kelvin increase in equatorial zone SST. Under a business-as-usual emissions scenario this results in an 11 +/- 6% decline in tropical marine primary production and a 6 +/- 3% decline in global marine primary production by 2100. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400373500016 |
WOS关键词 | MARINE PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; 21ST-CENTURY PROJECTIONS ; UNCERTAINTIES ; CLIMATE ; CARBON |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34207 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL, LSCE, F-91190 Gif Sur Yvette, France; 2.UPMC, Ecole Polytech, Ecole Normale Super, CNRS,IPSL,LMD, 24 Rue Lhomond, F-75231 Paris 05, France; 3.CNRS UPMC IRD MNHN, LOCEAN, IPSL, 4 Pl Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France; 4.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England; 5.Princeton Univ, NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 6.Peking Univ, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China; 7.CNRS, Meteo France, CNRM, 42 Ave Gaspard Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kwiatkowski, Lester,Bopp, Laurent,Aumont, Olivier,et al. Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(5). |
APA | Kwiatkowski, Lester.,Bopp, Laurent.,Aumont, Olivier.,Ciais, Philippe.,Cox, Peter M..,...&Seferian, Roland.(2017).Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(5). |
MLA | Kwiatkowski, Lester,et al."Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.5(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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