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DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0145-6 |
Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios | |
Nangombe, Shingirai1,2,3; Zhou, Tianjun1,2; Zhang, Wenxia1,2; Wu, Bo1; Hu, Shuai1,2; Zou, Liwei1; Li, Donghuan1,2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:5页码:375-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Zimbabwe |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events(1), the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa(2). However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets(3,4). Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations(5), we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 degrees C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 degrees C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December-February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25+/-5% and 20+/-4%, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431139900018 |
WOS关键词 | IMPACTS ; DROUGHTS ; PLUVIALS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34147 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Meteorol Serv Dept, Harare, Zimbabwe |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nangombe, Shingirai,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Wenxia,et al. Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(5):375-+. |
APA | Nangombe, Shingirai.,Zhou, Tianjun.,Zhang, Wenxia.,Wu, Bo.,Hu, Shuai.,...&Li, Donghuan.(2018).Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(5),375-+. |
MLA | Nangombe, Shingirai,et al."Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.5(2018):375-+. |
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