Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15929 |
Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison | |
Richard J. Smith; Joy S. Singarayer; Francis E. Mayle | |
2021-10-25 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | There is a major concern for the fate of Amazonia over the coming century in the face of anthropogenic climate change. A key area of uncertainty is the scale of rainforest dieback to be expected under a future, drier climate. In this study, we use the middle Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present) as an approximate analogue for a drier future, given that palaeoclimate data show much of Amazonia was significantly drier than present at this time. Here, we use an ensemble of climate and vegetation models to explore the sensitivity of Amazonian biomes to mid-Holocene climate change. For this, we employ three dynamic vegetation models (JULES, IBIS, and SDGVM) forced by the bias-corrected mid-Holocene climate simulations from seven models that participated in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3). These model outputs are compared with a multi-proxy palaeoecological dataset to gain a better understanding of where in Amazonia we have most confidence in the mid-Holocene vegetation simulations. A robust feature of all simulations and palaeodata is that the central Amazonian rainforest biome is unaffected by mid-Holocene drought. Greater divergence in mid-Holocene simulations exists in ecotonal eastern and southern Amazonia. Vegetation models driven with climate models that simulate a drier mid-Holocene (100–150 mm per year decrease) better capture the observed (palaeodata) tropical forest dieback in these areas. Based on the relationship between simulated rainfall decrease and vegetation change, we find indications that in southern Amazonia the rate of tropical forest dieback was ~125,000 km2 per 100 mm rainfall decrease in the mid-Holocene. This provides a baseline sensitivity of tropical forests to drought for this region (without human-driven changes to greenhouse gases, fire, and deforestation). We highlight the need for more palaeoecological and palaeoclimate data across lowland Amazonia to constrain model responses. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/341119 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richard J. Smith,Joy S. Singarayer,Francis E. Mayle. Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Richard J. Smith,Joy S. Singarayer,&Francis E. Mayle.(2021).Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Richard J. Smith,et al."Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison".Global Change Biology (2021). |
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