Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL093455 |
Testing the skill of a species distribution model using a 21st Century virtual ecosystem | |
L.R. Bardon; B.A. Ward; S. Dutkiewicz; B.B. Cael | |
2021-11-06 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | [ Plankton play an important role in marine food webs, in biogeochemical cycling, and in Earth’s climate; yet observations are sparse, and predictions of how they might respond to climate change vary. Correlative species distribution models (SDM’s) have been applied to predicting biogeography based on relationships to observed environmental variables. To investigate sources of uncertainty, we use a correlative SDM to predict the plankton biogeography of a 21st Century marine ecosystem model (Darwin). Darwin output is sampled to mimic historical ocean observations, and the SDM is trained using generalised additive models. We find that predictive skill varies across test cases, and between functional groups, with errors that are more attributable to spatiotemporal sampling bias than sample size. End-of-century predictions are poor, limited by changes in target-predictor relationships over time. Our findings illustrate the fundamental challenges faced by empirical models in using limited observational data to predict complex, dynamic systems. ] |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/341042 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | L.R. Bardon,B.A. Ward,S. Dutkiewicz,et al. Testing the skill of a species distribution model using a 21st Century virtual ecosystem[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | L.R. Bardon,B.A. Ward,S. Dutkiewicz,&B.B. Cael.(2021).Testing the skill of a species distribution model using a 21st Century virtual ecosystem.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | L.R. Bardon,et al."Testing the skill of a species distribution model using a 21st Century virtual ecosystem".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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