Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027740 |
Quantitative Verification and Calibration of Volcanic Ash Ensemble Forecasts Using Satellite Data | |
Zidikheri, Meelis J.; Lucas, Christopher; Potts, Rodney J. | |
2018-04-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:8页码:4135-4156 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | In this paper, we address the problem of verifying and calibrating ensemble-based probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts. The ensemble members are constructed from dispersion model simulations with different meteorological fields obtained from an ensemble meteorological forecast model and different values of ash source parameters such as ash column height and vertical mass distribution. The Brier score is employed to verify the probabilistic forecasts relative to binary-valued ash detection fields and fully quantitative satellite-retrieved ash mass load fields. A new ensemble forecast calibration methodology, which treats the meteorological and source term variations on equal footing, is also developed. This enables the creation of an ensemble subset yielding higher Brier skill scores than the uncalibrated ensemble during a calibration time window of about 6hr after the start of an eruption. It is shown that this can be used to improve probabilistic forecasts up to 24hr after the start of the eruption using the Indonesian 13 February 2014 Kelut and 6 November 2015 Rinjani eruptions as case studies. |
英文关键词 | volcanic ash ensemble forecasting forecast verification forecast calibration inverse modeling data assimilation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000433071200019 |
WOS关键词 | OBJECTSA GENERALIZED FRAMEWORK ; 2010 EYJAFJALLAJOKULL ERUPTION ; SULFUR-DIOXIDE ; DISPERSION MODEL ; AUTOMATED DETECTION ; GRIMSVOTN ERUPTION ; PREDICTION SYSTEM ; SOURCE PARAMETERS ; SEASONAL CLIMATE ; CLOUDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34092 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Australian Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zidikheri, Meelis J.,Lucas, Christopher,Potts, Rodney J.. Quantitative Verification and Calibration of Volcanic Ash Ensemble Forecasts Using Satellite Data[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(8):4135-4156. |
APA | Zidikheri, Meelis J.,Lucas, Christopher,&Potts, Rodney J..(2018).Quantitative Verification and Calibration of Volcanic Ash Ensemble Forecasts Using Satellite Data.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(8),4135-4156. |
MLA | Zidikheri, Meelis J.,et al."Quantitative Verification and Calibration of Volcanic Ash Ensemble Forecasts Using Satellite Data".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.8(2018):4135-4156. |
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