GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.15943
Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program
Grayson Badgley; Jeremy Freeman; Joseph J. Hamman; Barbara Haya; Anna T. Trugman; William R. L. Anderegg; Danny Cullenward
2021-11-12
发表期刊Global Change Biology
出版年2021
英文摘要

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of California's prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate-equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, California's program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over-crediting of 30.0 million tCO2e (90% CI: 20.5–38.6 million tCO2e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1%–37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280–$528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, California's forest offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits.

领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/340884
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
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GB/T 7714
Grayson Badgley,Jeremy Freeman,Joseph J. Hamman,et al. Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program[J]. Global Change Biology,2021.
APA Grayson Badgley.,Jeremy Freeman.,Joseph J. Hamman.,Barbara Haya.,Anna T. Trugman.,...&Danny Cullenward.(2021).Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program.Global Change Biology.
MLA Grayson Badgley,et al."Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program".Global Change Biology (2021).
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