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DOI | 10.1029/2018JD028724 |
Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models | |
Garfinkel, Chaim, I1; Schwartz, Chen1; Domeisen, Daniela I., V2; Son, Seok-Woo3; Butler, Amy H.4,5; White, Ian P.1 | |
2018-08-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:15页码:7855-7866 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel; Switzerland; South Korea; USA |
英文摘要 | The effect of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex is evaluated in five operational subseasonal forecasting models. Of these five models, the three with the best stratospheric resolution all indicate a weakened vortex during the easterly phase of the QBO relative to its westerly phase, consistent with the Holton-Tan effect. The magnitude of this effect is well captured for initializations in late October and November in the model with the largest ensemble size. While the QBO appears to modulate the extratropical tropospheric circulation in some of the models as well, the importance of a polar stratospheric pathway, through the Holton-Tan effect, for the tropospheric anomalies is unclear. Overall, knowledge of the QBO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere winter climate on subseasonal timescales. Plain Language Summary The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is perhaps the most regular atmospheric phenomena that is not directly controlled by solar radiation and can be predicted more than a year in advance. It is characterized by alternating westerly and easterly winds in the tropical stratosphere. Here we show that the QBO can be used to improve month-ahead prediction of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, and perhaps even the extratropical tropospheric circulation. Key Points |
英文关键词 | Quasi-Biennial Oscillation month-ahead prediction polar vortex annular modes |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443566900004 |
WOS关键词 | SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMINGS ; EQUATORIAL QBO ; POLAR VORTEX ; CIRCULATION ; EVENTS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33991 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fredy & Nadine Hartmann Inst Earth Sci, Jerusalem, Israel; 2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 3.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; 4.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 5.NOAA, Chem Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Garfinkel, Chaim, I,Schwartz, Chen,Domeisen, Daniela I., V,et al. Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(15):7855-7866. |
APA | Garfinkel, Chaim, I,Schwartz, Chen,Domeisen, Daniela I., V,Son, Seok-Woo,Butler, Amy H.,&White, Ian P..(2018).Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(15),7855-7866. |
MLA | Garfinkel, Chaim, I,et al."Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.15(2018):7855-7866. |
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