Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016JD025856 |
Predictable patterns of the May-June rainfall anomaly over East Asia | |
Xing, Wen1,2; Wang, Bin3,4,5; Yim, So-Young6; Ha, Kyung-Ja7 | |
2017-02-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA; South Korea |
英文摘要 | During early summer (May-June, MJ), East Asia (EA) subtropical front is a defining feature of Asian monsoon, which produces the most prominent precipitation band in the global subtropics. Here we show that dynamical prediction of early summer EA (20 degrees N-45 degrees N, 100 degrees E-130 degrees E) rainfall made by four coupled climate models' ensemble hindcast (1979-2010) yields only a moderate skill and cannot be used to estimate predictability. The present study uses an alternative, empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based physical-empirical (P-E) model approach to predict rainfall anomaly pattern and estimate its potential predictability. The first three leading modes are physically meaningful and can be, respectively, attributed to (a) the interaction between the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high and underlying Indo-Pacific warm ocean, (b) the forcing associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, and (c) the development of equatorial central Pacific SST anomalies. A suite of P-E models is established to forecast the first three leading principal components. All predictors are 0 month ahead of May, so the prediction here is named as a 0 month lead prediction. The cross-validated hindcast results demonstrate that these modes may be predicted with significant temporal correlation skills (0.48-0.72). Using the predicted principal components and the corresponding EOF patterns, the total MJ rainfall anomaly was hindcasted for the period of 1979-2015. The time-mean pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) score reaches 0.38, which is significantly higher than dynamical models' multimodel ensemble skill (0.21). The estimated potential maximum attainable PCC is around 0.65, suggesting that the dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve. Limitations and future work are discussed. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396121200010 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO MODOKI ; COUPLED CLIMATE MODELS ; SUMMER MONSOON ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; IMPACTS ; CHINA ; TELECONNECTION ; VARIABILITY ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33972 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ocean Univ China, CIMST, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 5.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 6.Korea Meteorol Adm, Seoul, South Korea; 7.Pusan Natl Univ, Div Earth Environm Syst, Busan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xing, Wen,Wang, Bin,Yim, So-Young,et al. Predictable patterns of the May-June rainfall anomaly over East Asia[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(4). |
APA | Xing, Wen,Wang, Bin,Yim, So-Young,&Ha, Kyung-Ja.(2017).Predictable patterns of the May-June rainfall anomaly over East Asia.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(4). |
MLA | Xing, Wen,et al."Predictable patterns of the May-June rainfall anomaly over East Asia".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.4(2017). |
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