Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL095376 |
Reevaluation of total-column ozone trends and of the Effective Radiative Forcing of ozone-depleting substances | |
Olaf Morgenstern; Stacey M. Frith; Gregory E. Bodeker; Vitali Fioletov; Ronald J. van der A | |
2021-09-30 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | We evaluate total-column ozone trends using a piecewise linear regression approach and maximizing usage of five gridded total-column ozone datasets. The new approach yields more consistent estimates of observed ozone loss during 1979-2000, when halocarbon concentrations were increasing, and consequently, using CMIP6 simulations, an increased Effective Radiative Forcing estimate of ozone-depleting substances with a substantially reduced uncertainty range versus an earlier evaluation. At more than 84% confidence it is now larger than zero and compares more favorably with three previous evaluations. We furthermore find significant positive post-1997 global- and Southern-Hemisphere mean trends, respectively, in these five datasets. For the extrapolar region (S-N) and for the Northern Hemisphere, the assessment whether there is a positive trend is inconclusive and depends on which observational dataset is included in the calculation. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/338864 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olaf Morgenstern,Stacey M. Frith,Gregory E. Bodeker,et al. Reevaluation of total-column ozone trends and of the Effective Radiative Forcing of ozone-depleting substances[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Olaf Morgenstern,Stacey M. Frith,Gregory E. Bodeker,Vitali Fioletov,&Ronald J. van der A.(2021).Reevaluation of total-column ozone trends and of the Effective Radiative Forcing of ozone-depleting substances.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Olaf Morgenstern,et al."Reevaluation of total-column ozone trends and of the Effective Radiative Forcing of ozone-depleting substances".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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