资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Hydropower dams are proliferating in the riparian countries of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) driven by the pursuit of renewable electricity and societal resilience to flooding. However, the tradeoffs between hydropower production and flood control are unclear in a changing environment. Here, we use a hydrological Variable Infiltration Capacity model combined with a reservoir module to quantify the relative effects of climate change and reservoir operation on flood and hydropower generation in LMRB. Results show that while climate change would increase flood magnitude and frequency, adaptive reservoir operation can reduce flood magnitude by 5.6%∼6.4% and frequency by 17.1%∼18.9% at the cost of 9.8%∼14.4% of basin-wide hydropower generation. Particularly, upstream reservoirs suffer more hydropower loss (5.4 times) than downstream ones when flood control is prioritized in reservoir regulation. Our findings have implications for integrated water and energy management at the transboundary river basin under climate change.