资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The equatorial Pacific Warm-Water-Volume (WWV) and western equatorial Pacific WWV (WWV_w) are two important long-lead time El Nin∼o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event precursors. Here we utilize the recharge-discharge oscillator framework to obtain the analytical solution of WWV and WWV_w lead times to ENSO sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Both WWV and WWV_w lead times show a strong dependence on the inherent ENSO periodicity, whereas WWV lead time is further modulated by the air-sea coupling strength and ENSO SST spatial pattern. The derived solution is able to explain observed decadal variations in lead times of WWV to SST in terms of variations in ENSO periodicity and air-sea coupling strength.