Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028535 |
Changing Water Resources under El Niño, Climate Change and Growing Water Demands in Seasonally-dry Tropical Watersheds | |
Silja V. Hund; Iris Grossmann; Douw G. Steyn; Diana M. Allen; Mark S. Johnson | |
2021-09-25 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The wet-dry tropics of Central America are characterized by long dry seasons, during which communities often struggle for water. High inter-annual rainfall variability, driven in parts by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), increases these challenges. Further, climate change projections indicate that the region will likely become drier. However, research on impacts on water resources at the watershed scale is limited in the region – yet this information is essential for water managers. Therefore, in this research, we quantified the potential impacts of ENSO and four different climate change scenarios on water resources in two watersheds in the wet-dry tropics of Guanacaste, Costa Rica, using a hydrological model (WEAP). Given that the watersheds are human-used, we also explored different water demand scenarios. Modeling results indicated that an extreme El Niño can reduce groundwater recharge and streamflow by ∼60% relative to ENSO Neutral. For 2074-2100, modeling results indicated that while potential evapotranspiration increases, actual evapotranspiration decreases due to limited water availability. Further, climate change may lead to reductions of mean annual streamflow and groundwater recharge by 40-45% and 26-28%, respectively, in comparison to the historical baseline. Importantly, high population growth could further hasten potentially irreversible groundwater storage declines. On the other hand, reduction of per-capita water demand could slow down, or even reverse, the decline of groundwater storage. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/338751 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Silja V. Hund,Iris Grossmann,Douw G. Steyn,et al. Changing Water Resources under El Niño, Climate Change and Growing Water Demands in Seasonally-dry Tropical Watersheds[J]. Water Resources Research,2021. |
APA | Silja V. Hund,Iris Grossmann,Douw G. Steyn,Diana M. Allen,&Mark S. Johnson.(2021).Changing Water Resources under El Niño, Climate Change and Growing Water Demands in Seasonally-dry Tropical Watersheds.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Silja V. Hund,et al."Changing Water Resources under El Niño, Climate Change and Growing Water Demands in Seasonally-dry Tropical Watersheds".Water Resources Research (2021). |
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