Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15871 |
Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 | |
Christopher Lyon; Erin E. Saupe; Christopher J. Smith; Daniel J. Hill; Andrew P. Beckerman; Lindsay C. Stringer; Robert Marchant; James McKay; Ariane Burke; Paul O’; Higgins; Alexander M. Dunhill; Bethany J. Allen; Julien Riel-Salvatore; Tracy Aze | |
2021-09-24 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/338683 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christopher Lyon,Erin E. Saupe,Christopher J. Smith,et al. Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Christopher Lyon.,Erin E. Saupe.,Christopher J. Smith.,Daniel J. Hill.,Andrew P. Beckerman.,...&Tracy Aze.(2021).Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Christopher Lyon,et al."Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100".Global Change Biology (2021). |
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