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CAMS Forecast of total column of sulphur dioxide for Thursday 23 Sep, 09 UTC, from Tuesday 21 Sep. CAMS forecasts are based on satellite observations of SO₂ total columns (i.e., the number of SO₂ molecules per unit area in a column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere). Credit: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service/ECMWF

The Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands erupted on 19^th September for the first time since 1971 resulting in large lava flows and evacuations. First Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)’ sulphur dioxide detections from the eruption were made on 20^th September based on satellite observations. CAMS monitors the impact of volcanic eruptions on the composition of the atmosphere as sulphur dioxide and other pollutants are transported away from the volcano. The CAMS forecasts show gaseous SO₂ in the atmosphere, but do not provide information on volcanic ash, which is under the responsibility of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs).

Mark Parrington, Senior Scientist at the ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, comments: “In a lot of cases, SO₂ can be used to estimate the extent and transport of volcanic plumes. Here, our CAMS forecasts of SO₂ dispersion can help evaluating the possible impacts of an eruption like the one happened in La Palma. For that, we assume a plume height of approximately 5km, which cannot be seen in the forecast of total column SO₂ but is clearly visible in the forecasts of SO₂ at different heights. The impacts of the SO₂ released by Cumbre Vieja on weather and air quality at the surface are most likely very small. Most of the emitted SO₂ is much higher up in the atmosphere, especially as you get further away from the source, and might just be visible as a light haze up in the sky.”

CAMS total column sulphur dioxide forecasts can be seen here:

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/sulphur-dioxide-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2021092100,57,2021092309&projection=classical_south_west_europe&layer_name=composition_so2_totalcolumn

CAMS sulphur dioxide forecasts at the surface can be seen here:

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/sulphur-dioxide-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2021092100,57,2021092309&projection=classical_south_west_europe&layer_name=composition_so2_surface

A visualization using the Windy.com-App of the predicted transport of sulphur dioxide from the Cumbre Vieja volcano, can be found here: https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1440235226907623426

More information on challenges in modelling volcanic eruptions:  https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/solving-challenges-modelling-volcanic-eruptions

As part of its monitoring role and as an important international actor to understand and analyse air quality, CAMS has recently participated in updating WHO`s global air quality guidelines. The report can be downloaded from: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240034228.