Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates | |
Kevin Rennert; Brian Prest; William Pizer; Richard Newell; David Anthoff; Cora Kingdon; Lisa Rennels; Roger Cooke; Adrian E. Raftery; Hana Ševčíková; and Frank Errickson | |
2021-09-09 | |
出版年 | 2021 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | The social cost of carbon is a vitally important metric for informing the climate policy of numerous entities, including most notably its role in guiding climate regulations issued by the US federal government (USG). Characterization of uncertainty and transparency of assumptions are critical for supporting such an influential metric used in policy analysis. Challenges inherent to SCC estimation push the boundaries of typical analytical techniques and require augmented approaches to assess uncertainty, which in turn also raises important considerations for discounting. This paper addresses challenges related to projecting very long-term economic growth, population, and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as calibration of key discounting parameters for consistency with those projections. Our work improves upon alternative approaches that have been used by the USG, such as the use of non-probabilistic scenarios and constant discounting. The most prominent set of scenarios commonly used for this purpose do not fully characterize the uncertainty distribution of fully probabilistic model input data or corresponding SCC estimate outputs. Incorporating the full range of economic uncertainty in the SCC further underscores the importance of adopting a stochastic discounting approach to account for such uncertainty in an integrated manner. For more, click "View Working Paper" above. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | Resources for the Future |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/337693 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kevin Rennert,Brian Prest,William Pizer,et al. The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates,2021. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论